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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround is handed the award. However, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking shock.

However this year's race is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime also-rans rising together. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still